NFL Draft Buyer Beware: D.K. Metcalf

NFL Draft Buyer Beware: D.K. Metcalf

Why should NFL teams be wary of spending a high draft pick on D.K. Metcalf?

D.K. Metcalf is a 6’3” 228 lbs freak of nature that outshone almost all wide receivers (wrs) at the NFL combine play placing in the following percentiles vs wrs for physical drills: 40 yard dash (95%), vertical jump (93%), broad jump (97%), and bench press (99%). He performed extremely poor in two categories that test an athlete’s ability to change direction, lateral speed, and agility: 3-cone drill (2%) and 20 yard shuttle (3%). Nevertheless, our research shows that the 40 yard dash, especially the 10 yard split (DK’s was fastest at 1.45 seconds), and jumping ability (which he dominated) are the most predictive of draft position and future NFL performance. So what’s the potential issue? Metcalf’s 2018 season at Ole’ Miss was cut short by a season ending neck injury on 10/3/2018 that required surgery.

An extensive study identified that players with cervical (neck) injuries prior to and identified at the NFL combine played in significantly fewer NFL games and had decreased career lengths when compared to healthy players that matched age, position, year drafted, and round drafted. Basically, they were able to identify the injury as a main differentiating factor.

Metcalf is a physical specimen that checks almost all the boxes that a NFL team wants. He will undoubtedly go high in the first round but teams should be wary of his previous injury as it could have an impact on his career output.

Food for Thought:

  • D.K. Metcalf (6’3” 228 lbs)
    • 40 yard dash – 4.33
    • 10 yard split – 1.45
    • Vertical jump – 40.5
    • Broad jump – 134
    • “Red Flag” prior injury
  • Paris Campbell (6’0” 205 lbs)
    • 40 yard dash – 4.31
    • 10 yard split – 1.45
    • Vertical jump – 40
    • Broad jump – 135
    • No “Red Flag” prior injury


Featured Image By: Yahoo! Sports

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